在线国产一区二区_成人黄色片在线观看_国产成人免费_日韩精品免费在线视频_亚洲精品美女久久_欧美一级免费在线观看

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Opinion
Home / Opinion / Featured Contributors

Risk of trade tension escalating real

By Léon Cornelissen | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2018-10-12 09:05
Share
Share - WeChat

Hit to global trade

“The conclusion of the ECB echoes earlier Bank of England simulations which suggested that in a similar scenario, US output could take a hit of 2.5 percent and global output 1 percent through trade channels alone. The Bank of England noted that the hit to global GDP would be substantially larger if everyone put up tariffs against everyone else.”

Trump’s trade war is also not just confined to China, as he has also threatened the European Union, famously complaining about German BMWs cruising around Manhattan. “Despite an apparently successful visit by the EU Commission president to the US to defuse trade tensions, Trump said at a campaign rally in West Virginia at the end of August: ‘We're going 

The estimated effects of a trade war in the first year. Source: ECB

to put a 25 percent tax on every car that comes into the United States from the European Union’,” Cornelissen said.

Dizzying numbers

The latest round of US tariffs is a 10 percent levy on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods which came into effect in September, on top of the $50 billion that came into effect in August. “Despite the slightly dizzying numbers, the products targeted so far still represent only a small part of world trade,” Cornelissen said.

“It is therefore understandable that the tariffs have not yet significantly damaged producer and consumer confidence. This goes a long way to explain the muted financial market reaction so far.”

“However, further escalation is looming. The US has threatened to hike the 10 percent tariff rate on $200 billion of goods to 25 percent at the beginning of next year if China doesn’t ‘change its ways’ – though it is still not entirely clear what the negotiation goal of the US vis-à-vis China is.”

Congressional elections

“Trump could become politically weakened in the mid-term Congressional elections on November 6, but this is unlikely to have much impact on his policies against China, as a hard line against the country is generally popular among the Democratic opposition and also in significant parts of the US business sector.”

“But it could mean that his pressure against Europe diminishes due to lack of support. With an eye on the presidential elections of 2020, Trump could choose to keep political tensions high with China, in the hope that this will increase his re-election chances.”

“Higher tariffs will thus become a permanent feature for the coming years. For investors, there is little upside in the escalating trade war. They can only hope that a more drastic escalation from current levels does not materialize.”

The author is Chief Economist at Robeco. The original headline of this opinion article was ‘Oh what a lovely trade war’. 

The opinions expressed here are those of the writer and do not represent the views of China Daily and China Daily website.

|<< Previous 1 2   
Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产精品国产三级国产aⅴ无密码 | 天天艹视频 | 精品国产一区一区二区三亚瑟 | 天天干天天操 | 成人精品一区二区三区中文字幕 | 久久亚洲一区二区 | 日韩精品一区二区在线 | 欧美在线一区二区三区 | 国产综合久久久久久鬼色 | 激情久久久| 青青草免费在线观看 | 日韩福利| 二区免费| 色av综合 | 久久久婷 | 久久国产综合 | 九九热精品视频在线观看 | 永久黄网站色视频免费观看w | 精品国产91 | 成人一区电影 | 国内成人精品2018免费看 | 中文字幕久久精品 | 韩国精品主播一区二区在线观看 | 国产无遮挡呻吟吸乳视频 | 成人av网站免费观看 | 亚洲黄色一区二区 | 国产高清一区 | 亚洲成人精品 | 成人高清在线观看 | 日韩一区二区三区在线播放 | 精品一区91 | 男女精品视频 | 亚洲国产成人精品久久 | 久久这里只有精品首页 | 日韩日韩日韩日韩日韩日韩日韩 | 中文字幕在线一区 | 国产一区二区三区高清 | 免费视频99 | 日韩在线一区二区 | 亚洲欧美一区二区三区视频 | av网站免费看|