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East Asia's economic prospects bright
(Agencies)
Updated: 2004-04-20 17:27

East Asia's economies will grow nearly twice as fast as the world rate this year on the back of China's continued strength, helping to lift millions of people above the poverty line, the World Bank said Tuesday.

The region's expected expansion of 6.3 percent in 2004 will be the fastest since the global economic slowdown in 2000, the multi-lateral finance agency said in its twice-yearly East Asia economic update.

"With a strong recovery in the United States and Japan, increased demand for East Asian exports and the long-awaited rebound in the high-tech sector, the outlook is very positive for the big countries and for the smaller ones," World Bank regional vice president Jemal-ud-din Kassum said.

East Asia's expected growth rate of 6.3 percent compares with a forecast of 3.7 percent globally and 4.6 percent for the United States.

China, which now accounts for around half the export growth in east Asian economies, is again expected to remain the driving force of the region's expansion with a 7.7 percent rise in gross domestic product this year.

The World Bank also warned, however, that there were risks for the whole region if China's efforts to slow the nation's booming economy -- it grew by 9.1 percent in 2003, and 9.7 percent in the first three months in 2004 - resulted in a "hard landing".

"The Chinese authorities are now aiming to eliminate overheating by slowing growth to a more sustainable pace of around 7.0 percent. But their task is complicated by the limited range and bluntness of macroeconomic policy instruments available," the bank said in its report.

Nevertheless, the World Bank was optimistic that a slower growth would be manageable in China and this would have only a modest impact on other economies in the region.

Thailand, with a forecast growth rate of 7.2 percent, and Vietnam, at 7.0 percent, are expected to have the next fastest growing economies in East Asia.

Rising commodity prices, partly fuelled by China's rising appetite for raw materials, have been a big instrument in helping the smaller economies with abundant raw materials, it said.

Prices for commodities such as cotton, rice, rubber and edible palm oils rose by between 10 and 20 percent in 2003 and have continued to surge in the first few months of this year, according to the World Bank.

This partly contributed to the incomes of 49 million people in East Asia rising above the poverty line benchmark of 2 US dollars a day during 2003.

About 674 million people in the region, about 36.7 percent of the population, are now believed to be living on less than 2 dollars a day, down from 66 percent in 1990.

Of the 674 million people living below the poverty line, about 190 million live on less than 1 dollar a day, the World Bank said.

 
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