在线国产一区二区_成人黄色片在线观看_国产成人免费_日韩精品免费在线视频_亚洲精品美女久久_欧美一级免费在线观看

USEUROPEAFRICAASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
China
Home / China / View

Economy needs pruning for growth

By Ed Zhang | China Daily Europe | Updated: 2014-10-19 12:56

Less emphasis on the growth rate and more reform will provide an impetus that serves to invigorate

It sounds like a contradiction: China's development needs a cut in the 2015 GDP growth rate.

At least this way the economy would be easier to manage: When the government is less concerned about maintaining high growth, an inevitable result from continuous expansion in capital investment, it can spend more time and energy concentrating on more important things, first of all reform. Many of the reform efforts outlined by the famous Third Plenum in November 2013 are still to become reality.

Common sense in economics shows that the country is unlikely to sustain its present growth, an annual rate of 7.5 percent, without maintaining a considerable investment in fixed assets, especially expensive public projects led by the government.

For GDP growth to rise above 8 percent a year, it would generally take both the central and local governments to embark on many large projects at the same time. Judging from the local governments' record in contributing so much to industrial overcapacity and luxury housing, their enthusiasm for capital investment is the last thing needed by China at the moment.

As for other drivers of growth, economists say consumer-oriented industries, or the so-called service industries, don't yield so much growth as capital investment in the statistical sense (in GDP, for instance), even though they do create many jobs and make life easier and more colorful for consumers.

So the economic paper released in early October by economists with the Chinese Academy of Social Science, in which the forecast of China's GDP growth is lowered to 7 percent in 2015, is actually based on deep lessons. The CASS forecast is even lower than a recent IMF forecast of 7.1 percent.

It should be pointed out that the forecast figure from a Chinese think tank and that from an overseas body, although examining the same subject, are quite different things. An overseas forecast is a bystander's view, while a Chinese forecast sometimes implicitly contains a piece of policy advice, as the CASS forecast may do.

A lower growth target can only be a natural outcome of more effective reform. It means to concentrate the government commitment, and reduce the resources that interests outside reform, particularly what President Xi Jinping has recently called bureaucratic interest cliques, are allowed to share.

Indeed, no significant progress can be made in reform without China shedding more unwanted industrial capacity, closing down more building projects that serve no market demand, dampening interest in land speculation and housing prices in cities with no potential population growth, starving the luxury services aimed not at mass consumers but only bureaucratic consumption (such as officials' clubs and restaurants that once dotted many obscure corners in western Beijing), and stifling the shadow banking that used to grease the above goings-on.

These, as business activities, will have to be done away with. And the GDP loss they may represent won't be a negligible number, in jobs and in financial write-offs. Shutting down one steel mill can cost hundreds of jobs. And there are many running on paper-thin profit margins, with huge daily pollution discharges, still to be shut.

From China's 2014 experience, one can see clearly how hard, if not painful, it is for the government to keep GDP growth at the 7.5 level, and in the meantime, how many reform tasks remain unfinished, if not un-started.

Not many cities have been trying innovative ways to build their economies; many still rely on land auctions and, therefore, housing development for most of their revenues.

In the State sector of the economy, not a single industry has reported successful progress in the mixed-ownership, or participation of private capital, that the Third Plenum promoted.

Successful examples of public-private partnership, likely to be the most efficient way for business development in China, are few and far between, although it is encouraged by the central government and permitted by law. In the north China port city of Tianjin, while its theater flourishes, with shows running almost daily under private management, its planned Yujiapu financial district, a much more costly project, remains empty and sees little activity.

So, for 2015, Beijing's option may be very simple: To give up more speed, in return for more reform.

The author is editor-at-large of China Daily. Contact the writer at edzhang@chinadaily.com.cn

 

Editor's picks
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产精品麻豆免费版 | www.国产一区 | 91伊人| 96视频在线 | 精品国产福利 | 欧美网站在线观看 | 午夜大片 | 欧美网站在线观看 | 在线色网 | 免费看成人片 | 天天操综合网 | 特黄av | 日韩av中文字幕在线播放 | 成人爽a毛片一区二区免费 www.欧美精品 | 四虎永久在线视频 | 久久久久人 | 欧美在线免费观看视频 | 成人网av| 93久久精品日日躁夜夜躁欧美 | 久久不卡| 日韩一区三区 | 欧美不卡 | 五月天在线 | 午夜免费福利 | 亚洲精品一区二区三区蜜桃久 | 亚洲欧美久久 | 久久性生活视频 | 午夜精品视频 | 成人影 | 伊人成人在线视频 | 日韩免费小视频 | 免费日韩视频 | 国产精品毛片久久久久久久 | 窝窝午夜精品一区二区 | 婷婷色在线 | 国产精品xxx在线观看 | 亚洲裸体视频 | 久久久久久久久久国产精品 | 亚洲精品国产一区 | 深夜福利网| 91视频专区|