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Experts: Bleak prospects for future six-party talks

By Qi Xiao (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2009-05-25 19:49

Beijing - Underground nuclear test conducted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) bodes ill for the future six-party talks, leading Chinese experts have said.

The DPRK successfully conducted an underground nuclear test on Monday, less than a month after it issued a warning of retaliation following UN condemnation of its satellite launch, DPRK’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Monday.

In technology terms, “the current nuclear test was safely conducted on a new higher level in terms of its explosive power and technology of its control," according to KCNA.

Full coverage:  DPRK Conducts Nuclear Test Related readings:  China 'resolutely opposes' DPRK's nuclear test  DPRK confirms 2nd nuclear test  S Korean troops on heightened alert amid DPRK's nuclear test  Russia says DPRK blast had 20 kilotonne force  Obama: DPRK nuclear test a 'grave concern'  UN Security Council to meet on DPRK test  SKorea, Japan pursue UN punishment against DPRK nuclear test  Russia says DPRK's nuclear test 'evokes concern'

Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University, told chinadaily.com.cn on Monday, “It is technological rather than political. The DPRK just intends to show it is nuclear-ready.

"In fact, the DPRK has already been determined to conduct a second test, which is all the clearer after it quit the six-party talks,” he said.

The so-called "six-party" talks among the DPRK, the Republic of Korea (ROK), China, Japan, Russia and the United States aims at the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsular.

China's Foreign Ministry said on Monday that the Chinese government is resolutely opposed to the nuclear test.

Shi Yinhong, director of the Center for International Studies at the Renmin University of China, was pessimistic about the prospects of the six-party talks.

“The talks will not resume, at least for the foreseeable future,” he told chinadaily.com.cn Monday.

Tsinghua University's Yan agreed, “The DPRK will only return to the talks if its nuclear power status is legitimized and the issue of denuclearization is dropped.

“It will be almost impossible to persuade the DPRK to give up its nuclear weapons once it has acquired them,” he said, “If there is any future negotiation, the focus is likely to shift to non-proliferation. If that happens, it will mean a whole new six-party talks.”

Japan and the ROK condemned the test, while the US and Russia expressed their concern on Monday.

“It is not immediately clear why the DPRK conducted the test. However, it is a logical development following several months of the DPRK’s vocal threats to the ROK and the wider international community,” Shi said. “It is a message to the US that it will not bow to its demands."

The DPRK warned on April 29 that it would conduct a second test, following the first in October 2006, in protest against the UN Security Council's rebuke for its April 5 satellite launch.

“No one has expected its nuclear test at such an early stage. This is an apparent act to boost domestic morale as the urgency of the launch shows,” Shi added.