在线国产一区二区_成人黄色片在线观看_国产成人免费_日韩精品免费在线视频_亚洲精品美女久久_欧美一级免费在线观看

Slowdown but no hard landing in 2012

Updated: 2012-02-03 07:58

By Wei Tian (China Daily)

  Comments() Print Mail Large Medium  Small 分享按鈕 0
BEIJING - Although forecasts for China's growth rate vary, analysts and economists agree that the world's second-largest economy will achieve a soft landing in 2012, with the prospect of further easing measures.

"We expect the debt crisis in Europe and the weak recovery in the United States to reduce demand and cause a drag on China's export-dependent economy," US-based Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said in a report released on Thursday.

In the report, "Credit Outlook: Chinese Dragon to Fly into a Soft Landing in 2012", the agency forecast that GDP growth would decelerate further in 2012 to about 8 percent in a base-case scenario.

"We also project that there is a one-in-four chance of a medium landing of 7-percent growth to occur, and a one-in-10 likelihood of a hard landing of 5-percent GDP expansion," said S&P credit analyst Terry Chan.

S&P said that different sectors would experience varied effects from the marked slowdowns of the latter two scenarios. "The impact could range from very high to low, which could mean from defaults to no downgrades," the agency said.

"We believe the country's real estate sector and local governments would suffer most" in case of a significant slowdown, it said.

China experienced a slowdown in GDP growth to 9.2 percent in 2011 from 10.4 percent in 2010. S&P's base-case estimate was matched by most analysts, who forecast growth of 8 to 9 percent this year.

A "soft landing" usually refers to economic growth above 7 percent with an inflation rate below 4.5 percent.

The January Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), an indicator of manufacturing activity, stood above 50, which suggests a moderate expansion.

However, a separate index released by HSBC Holdings PLC was less optimistic, giving a reading of 48.8.

"The January PMI suggested the easing monetary measures and proactive fiscal tools are taking effect, which eased the fears of a hard landing," said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia-Pacific economist with Mizuho Securities Co Ltd.

However, Shen said, with capital outflow continuing and the bank reserve ratio remaining high, the central bank needs to increase the frequency and intensity of monetary fine-tuning.

He forecast there would be four cuts in the bank reserve ratio this year.

Zhang Shuguang, an economist with the Unirule Institute of Economics, agreed, saying that monetary policy would still play a role in supporting steady growth this year.

"Stability is the first priority this year. Thus, an operation similar to that of the massive fiscal stimulus in 2008 is not likely to be repeated," Zhang said.

But next year will see significant growth in credit and other policy support, he said.

Another global agency, Fitch Ratings, said the ratings outlook for banks in the Asia-Pacific region was stable, but it remained cautious on Chinese banks.

Funding and liquidity pressures were increasing as these banks faced pressure to lend in support of economic growth, Fitch said.

Wang Tao, chief economist with UBS AG in China, estimated bank lending would reach 2.5 trillion yuan ($396.5 billion) to 2.8 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2012.

China Daily

主站蜘蛛池模板: 青久久| 亚洲区一区二 | 91午夜精品亚洲一区二区三区 | 狠狠艹狠狠干 | 黄色大片免费在线观看 | 免费看的黄网站 | 中文字幕一区二区三区在线观看 | 日本中文字幕一区 | 交换多p群乱高h文 | 亚洲日本视频 | 欧美一区二区三区视频 | 久久性色| 亚洲永久精品视频 | 深夜福利视频网站 | 日韩在线不卡视频 | 一区二区三区四区精品 | 成人国产精品一区二区 | 午夜影院在线观看 | 五月婷婷影院 | 久久精品欧美一区二区三区不卡 | 婷婷一区二区三区 | 在线观看视频国产 | 麻豆精品一区 | 国产精品99久久久久久久久 | 亚洲第一黄色 | 亚洲欧美中文字幕 | 91精品久久久久 | 日本欧美精品 | 日韩在线免费播放 | 精品一区二区三区视频 | 日韩欧美一区二区在线观看 | 在线观看视频一区二区三区 | 国产网址 | 国产欧美日韩在线观看 | 日韩午夜在线 | 91成人国产 | 青青草手机在线视频 | 久久久久久网 | 一级黄色在线观看 | a毛片大片 | 成 人 黄 色 片 在线播放 |